Tournament Time!

Today, the Colonial Athletic Association begins its annual trek to the Richmond Coliseum for the CAA men's basketball tournament. Twelve teams over four days vying for the conference crown and the automatic bid for the Big Dance (if you're not aware how big such a thing can be, check out my opinion My Favorite Time of Year below...yeah, it's practically a novel, but I think it's worth the read).

This year's tournament will have a different feel, with each of the top four teams in the conference looking at possibilities (remote or otherwise) of an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament should they falter this weekend. George Mason's run last year will undoubtedly weigh heavily on the Selection Committee's mind, and with four CAA teams boasting at least 20 wins -- Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Hofstra and Drexel -- on the surface it appears as if all four squads have a shot.

But I'll determine each team's at-large chances in the team-by-team breakdowns. Each team is listed in order of seeding, with overall and conference records in parentheses. The top four seeds get a first-round bye, which means they won't play until tomorrow's quarterfinals. No team seeded lower than fourth has won the CAA tournament since No. 7 East Carolina did so in 1993.

East Carolina's no longer in the CAA.

Anywho, enough with the prepatory bibble-babble; onto the team-by-team previews.

VCU (24-6, 16-2 CAA): Given how the Rams nearly ran roughshod over the CAA, it's little surprise first-year coach Anthony Grant won the conference's Coach of the Year honors. Point guard Eric Maynor, a no-brainer CAA First-Team selection, is averaging 13.8 ppg and a confrence-high 6.4 apg, and his assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1. The Rams will be tough from behind the arc, specifically with B.A. Walker (15.3ppg) and Jesse Pellot-Rosa (13.4 ppg).

VCU is probably the most athletic team in the conference, something Grant uses to his advantage when he presses nearly the entire game. The press is very effective when the team's on its game, but the Rams do have occasional defensive lapses, which can result in their opponents finding easy hoops and going on runs. VCU did sort of stumble into the tournament, and with an RPI or 60 and a horridly easy nonconference schedule (they lost to their best OOC foe, Xavier), VCU will need to win the tournament to go dancing.

ODU (23-7, 15-3 CAA): The CAA champions of two years ago are also the conference's hottest team coming into the tournament, having won their last 11 games. If the Monarchs advance to the championship game and flater, they'll have a 13-game winning streak, much like George Mason did a year ago. Senior forward Valdas Vasylius leads ODU with 16 ppg and 6.3 rpg, and Drew Williamson continues to be one of the best point guards in the CAA, averaging nearly 12 points and five assists a contest. Also, look for forward Arnaud Dahi (9.6 ppg) and guard Brandon Johnson to give ODU quality minutes.

ODU has a quality road win against nationally-ranked Georgetown and the 18th toughest nonconference schedule in the country. That, combined with an RPI ranging from the low to mid 30s, should give ODU enough should they advance to the title game and fall. The Monarchs might still get an at-large if they lose in the semifinals, but the best way to ensure an at-large is to advance to Monday's final. Then again, they could just win the tournament and forget the whole thing.

Hofstra (22-8, 14-4 CAA): The Pride will be a factor, if for no other reason than their backcourt. The combination of Loren Stokes, Antoine Agudio and Carlos Rivera has led Hofstra to 73.6 ppg, second-best in the conference, so whoever they're facing should prepare to work on defense. Stokes leads the team with 20.8 ppg, while Agudion parlayed 20.5 ppg to a First-Team selection. Rivera chips in 12.9ppg and 4.0 apg. But the Pride have nothing down low, which can be a problem against teams with strong frontcourts, like ODU and Drexel.

Hofstra has the 123rd toughest OOC schedule in the country, and have an RPI approaching the 70s. With those two details in mind, Hofstra needs to win out in Richmond or face yet another trip to the NIT.

Drexel (22-7, 13-5 CAA): I must say, I didn't expect Drexel to be this good this year, but it was. Frank Elegar (team-high 15.5 ppg) is the best pure center in the CAA, while Chaz Crawford leads the conference with 9.7 rpg and 3.3 bpg. Guard Dominick Mejia averages 11.9 ppg and is deadly from behind the arc, but his defense can make him a liability on the court at times. Point guard Bashir Mason will. be the catalyst for this Dragons team.

Key nonconference wins against Syracuse, Creighton and Villanova help the Dragons' at-large profile, but did little to help them in-conference. A sweep at the hands of ODU and a tough road loss against William & Mary will hurt, despite the team's low-40 RPI. The Dragons are looking at a possible semifinal match against VCU, and if the Dragons can advance to Monday's title game, they're the only team outside of ODU with a realistic at-large shot.

Northeastern (12-18, 9-9 CAA): Another team I really didn't expect anything out of, given the loss of Shawn James and coach Ron Everhart to Duquense. But the Huskies have won five of their last six coming into the tournament, making them the second-hottest team in the CAA behind ODU. One of those wins was a 23-point blowout of George Mason. Bennett Davis leads the team with 14.8 ppg and 6.8 rpg, while Matt Janning (11.8 ppg) and Bobby Kelly (10.9 ppg) give the Huskies a triple-threat. If they beat Delaware in the first round today, Northeastern could give Drexel a tough time in the quarters tomorrow.

George Mason (15-14, 9-9 CAA): The Patriots had a down-year, compared to their Final Four run of a year ago, but that's to be expected when you lose your three seniors from that squad (Tony Skinn, Lamar Butler, Jai Lewis). George Mason lost five of its last seven, including an overtime stunner at home against ODU and a 23-point drubbing at the hands of the Huskies. Will Thomas led the team with 13.7 ppg, but it's obvious he misses Lewis down low. Folarin Campbell is a legitimate threat outside with 46 3-pointers on the year, but the Patriots are stumbling at the wrong time and could lose today against lowly James Madison if they're not careful.

Towson (14-16, 8-10 CAA): Yet another losing season for the Tigers, but coach Pat Kennedy has made progress in Baltimore. Gary Neal not only leads the conference in scoring (25.6 ppg), but he's fifth in then ation in scoring, and prone to Gilbert Arenas-like moments of consciousness. Forward Dennard Abraham averages 11.3 ppg for the Tigers, which will be a tough test for anyone who faces them in the tournament. Towson should dispatch of UNC Wilmington in the first round today, and while ODU should beat the Tigers tomorrow in the quarters, it will be a tough contest.

William & Mary (15-14, 8-10 CAA): Speaking of progress, William & Mary scored its first winning season since 1997-98. Adam Payton leads the team with 13.7 ppg and forward Laimis Kisielius pitches in 11.3 ppg, but the Tribe lack the one thing of utmost importance in this conference: athleticism. They're small and not terribly deep, but the lack of athleticism will hurt the Tribe the most. I expect them to beat Georgia State today, but VCU will have their way with the Tribe in tomorrow's quarterfinal.

Georgia State (10-19, 5-13 CAA): The Panthers lead the CAA with 16 turnovers a game, speaking to not only an inability to take care of the basketball, but a lack of coaching ability as well. The team does have some athletes, namely Lance Perique (15.6 ppg) and Leonard Mendez (13.4 ppg), but when six of your 19 losses are by 25 points or more, there's definite trouble brewing somewhere in Atlanta. I expect a one-and-done for the Panthers this year.

UNC Wilmington (7-21, 4-14 CAA): Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Last year, the Seahawks took the CAA tournament and nearly upended George Washington in the first round. But then they lost John Goldsberry and coach Brad Brownell went to Wright State. First-year head man Benny Moss has done the best he could, but with Tim Soyebo and T.J. Carter either hurt or ineffective, there isn't much cause for celebration in Wilmington. The Seahawks have lost five of their last six (their only win against lowly Delaware), and are on pace for their worst season since 1968-69.

James Madison (7-22, 4-14 CAA): The Dukes have lost 20 games in each of the past four seasons, so this year was really just more of the same. JMU has lost 10 of its last 11, its only win coming against Delaware (those poor Blue Hens...they can't beat anybody). While the team has some good athletes -- sophomore forward Juwann James (13.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg) among them -- the team allows a league-worst 49.4 precent shooting and 73 points a game. You can't win if you can't keep the opposition out of the hoop.

Delaware (5-25, 3-15 CAA): I said in my season preview this team would be lucky to win eight games this season, and it looks like that was a generous prediction. Herb Courtney carries the load for the Blue Hens, averaging 17.9 ppg and 8.1 rpg, but outside of him, there is little, if anything, good to say about this team. Anything outside of a major first-round exit today would be a huge shock; it's almost inexplicable the way this team has fallen over the past couple years.

Okay, enough with the numbers and the waxing poetic about who's been good this year and who, well, hasn't. Who's going to be cutting down the nets on ESPN come Monday night? Well, much like two seasons ago, it's going to come down to the top two seeds: VCU and ODU. And it wouldn't surprise me if this one went into overtime as well. But ODU will pull out its second CAA crown in three seasons, and the Monardchs will end the string of five straight top seeds to win the tournament.

As for at-larges? If the above holds true, VCU and Drexel will be biting their nails all week waiting for Selection Sunday. And if that's the case, VCU gets left out and Drexel might get in. But if VCU beats ODU? Both those teams are locked in, and Drexel still has a shot. But for Drexel to get in, they need to at least advance to the final, and Hofstra just needs to go ahead and win the tournament.