March Madness Blurbs and Observations

1) Since 1989, a No. 12 seed has upset a No. 5 seed every year expect one. The 12-5 matchups this year are: Butler (5)-Old Dominion (12), USC (5)-Arkansas (12), Virginia Tech (5)-Illinois (12) and Tennessee (5)-Long Beach State (12). The best bet for an upset in this seed matchup this year? Call me a homer, but I'm going with the Monarchs of ODU over Butler. While this might be an upset in terms of seeding only (since the committee thought it'd be fun to pit two mid-majors against each other in the first round), these are essentially two teams headed in opposite directions. Butler got off to that great start, winning the preseason NIT and beating the likes of Tennessee and Gonzaga, but have lost four of its last eight, including the Horizon League tournament final against Wright State. ODU, meanwhile, had won 12 in a row before bowing out to George Mason in the CAA semis -- including six on the road.

2) Since I'm fond of tooting ODU's (and by extension, the CAA's) horn on this site, let me take time out to congratulate the Lady Monarchs on their 16th consecutive CAA title (an NCAA record). ODU beat James Madison Sunday 78-70 to take the crown, and the automatic bid, and will face Florida State in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Lady Monarchs haven't won an NCAA tournament game since 2002, when they advanced to the Elite Eight before falling to eventual national champion Connecticut. Meanwhile, James Madison and Delaware give the CAA three bids for the first time in the history of the conference. ODU may still be the class of CAA women's basketball, but the conference as a whole is getting better each year.

3) I'm still trying to figure out how Arkansas and Stanford got in, while Syracuse and Drexel didn't. Sure, the Razorbacks fought their way to the SEC tournament final, but they got destroyed by Florida. Granted, that in and of itself might not be much to keep Arkansas out, but how about a 7-9 record in the weak SEC West? I could never give an at-large bid to a team that can't finish .500 in-conference, regardless of the league. If you can't win half your league games, you have no business being in the tournament. Now...as for Stanford. 18-12 overall, 10-8 in the Pac-10; well, at least the Cardinal meet the .500 in league play criteria. BUT ... this is a team that got bounced early from its conference tournament, and didn't even win 20 games. Meanwhile, teams that did win 20 games -- Drexel (23), Syracuse (22), Akron (26), Appalachian State (25) -- got snubbed. You can argue RPI and SOS all you want, but I have a hard time letting an 18-win team gobble up an at-large in lieu of a team with anywhere from 22 to 26 wins.

4) Speaking of Drexel ... the Dragons did everything the committee asked teams to do. They scheduled tough road games and won a fair bit of them. They beat: Syracuse at Syracuse, Villanova at Villanova and Creighton at Creighton. I realize Drexel finished fourth in the CAA, two spots behind ODU, and wound up 1-5 against the conference's best teams (ODU went 4-2 against the CAA's best), but how do you leave a team out after it did everything you, the committee, asked them to do?

5) I already said Duke didn't belong in the tournament, though I knew all along they'd get in. Being a No. 6 seed is a joke, though; the Blue Devils really should've been anywhere from a No. 9 to a No. 11 seed. Their gift? A first-round tilt in Buffalo, N.Y. against CAA champion Virginia Commonwealth. I love this match-up for the Rams; though Duke has the edge in the paint with Josh McRoberts, VCU has a three-headed monster in the backcourt, led by CAA tournament MVP Eric Maynor. He's much too fast and athletic for Greg Paulus, and I think VCU's all-game full-court press will give the Dookies fits. Don't be surprised if VCU continues the CAA's run of postseason success and sends Duke home early.

6) I feel really bad for Akron. Not only did the Zips lose out on an NCAA tournament bid, despite a 26-7 overall record (13-3 Mid-American Conference), but they couldn't secure an NIT bid, either. Joke all you want about how the NIT means nothing and how it really stands for N ot I nvited T ournament, but how does a team with 26 wins -- who was a buzzer-beating 3-pointer away from going to the Big Dance -- NOT see postseason play?! I feel really bad for the Zips; they are the biggest snub in all of March.

7) Will Florida repeat its national title? It's possible, especially since the Gators finally woke up when the games started to matter again. Everyone wondered what was wrong with Florida when it lost three out of its last four in the regular season, but I never thought anything was wrong -- this team was just bored. They'd locked up the SEC regular-season title, and pretty much knew it was getting a high NCAA seed no matter what. I'd be pretty bored too...

8) Who's going to Atlanta this year? Well, in my almost-humble, not-quite-professional opinion, it'll be Florida, Kansas, Texas A&M and Georgetown. The Hoyas are possibly the hottest team in the nation right now, and that Princeton-style offense could give the Tar Heels fits. Talk all you want about Brandon Wright and Tyler Hansborough, but I'll take the experience of Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green any day with a ticket to Atlanta on the line. Also, the Aggies could be the one team nobody wants to see, mainly because of Acie Law IV and how Texas A&M can put points on the board.

9) National title? I'll say Florida over Georgetown.