Friday, May 11, 2007

NASCAR Spelling Bee

How do you spell the word dead? Or doomed, for that matter?

Despite what the conventions of the English language might tell you, after Thursday morning, the two words can be spelled in exactly the same way:

D.E.I.

Whether Dale Earnhardt, Jr's announcement Thursday that he'll be leaving Dale Earnhardt, Inc. at the end of the Nextel Cup season is a shocker or not remains debatable, but one thing is for certain: the company bearing his late father's name will never be the same.

Junior says he hopes DEI finds success without him. Owner -- and stepmonster supreme -- Teresa Earnhardt says she's confident DEI will find its way and compete in the future for Cup races and titles.

I have no problem with Junior saying that; he's taking the high road, despite the obvious bad blood between himself and Teresa, his stepmother. That distaste, which actually goes back several years, permeated the entire negotiation process, and I think it was one of the top three reasons Dale's going elsewhere next season.

Meanwhile, what of DEI? Let's assume when Junior leaves, he takes Budweiser -- one of NASCAR's richest and most visible spnosors -- with him. That leaves Teresa with the option of finding other sponsorship for the No. 8 car, or downsizing DEI into a two-car operation.

Those two cars? The No. 1 of Martin Truex and the No. 15 of Paul Menard.

Yeah, have fun with that.

Truex isn't a bad driver -- he does have two Busch Series titles -- but for the most part his transition into Nextel Cup has been rocky. And Menard? He doesn't even qualify for the race half the time; as pathetic as it sounds now, Michael Waltrip performed better in that ride.

A few weeks ago, reports circulated that Robert Yates' team was looking to merge with DEI. I can't speak to the validity of these reports, but I think it would make sense now that Junior's bolting elsewhere. In my mind, that's the only way DEI can stay afloat without the sport's most popular driver -- and the guy who just so happens to share the company name. If Teresa wants to go it alone the way she has the past several years, DEI's not long for the NASCAR world. But if she decides to suck up her pride and merge her resources with that of another team, then DEI might find its way again.

But I doubt it. DEI is about to lose not only its biggest driver, it's losing the sport's most popular driver. Go to any Nextel Cup race, and 80 percent of the grandstands are decked out in Junior red. Budweiser is the beer of choice in the seats (and, if Jeff Gordon wins a race, on the track), and Junior's merchandise sales trump everyone who isn't his late father.

Go to Charlotte or Martinsville. While other drivers have one -- maybe two -- souvenir trailers, Junior has four.

Where will Junior go? Nobody knows at this point, but there's a lot of speculation. Hendrick Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing seem to be the frontrunners, but I really don't see either option making much sense. Hendrick is the most dominant organization in NASCAR right now, what with Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. Why would Hendrick mess with that, and more importantly, who would he kick to the curb to make room for Junior? Sure, Casey Mears is struggling, but he just got there this season.

Childress is probably a frontrunner just because of the Earnhardt connection. Dale Sr. won six of his seven titles while driving for Childress, and a lot of people would love to see the No. 3 back on the track -- and Childress has long said the only way that number returns to the track is if Junior drives it. But again, this makes no sense; Childress isn't kicking Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton or Clint Bowyer to the curb.

But what about Joe Gibbs Racing? Junior's good friends with Tony Stewart, so there's that. And while Stewart and Denny Hamiln are strong week in and week out, J.J. Yeley struggles to keep the car off the wall nine races out of ten. If I'm in charge of that team, I bounce Yeley after the season and make a strong push for Junior. The exposure it will give to Joe Gibbs Racing would be immense, and I think Junior would have a much better shot at a Cup title with Joe Gibbs than he does right now at DEI.

Let's face it: DEI titles? None. Joe Gibbs titles? Three (Bobby Labonte in 2000, Stewart in 2002 and 2005).

Regardless of where Junior goes, I don't see DEI holding on much longer. The team is already middle-of-the-pack with Junior on board, and I don't see it improving once he leaves. That's exposure and money that'll be going elsewhere, and the public backlash awaiting Teresa could become too much to bear. For the well-being of DEI, Teresa had to retain Junior, and she failed.

So in the coming years, she'll have to go about her day knowing she killed off one of her late husband's greatest legacies. I can't help but wonder how many times Senior's spun in his grave over the past 24 hours, because I guarantee you this isn't what he had in mind when Junior first came into the Cup Series.

Dale Earnhardt, Inc. without an Earnhardt behind the wheel? Congratulations, Teresa. I hope you feel really good about yourself.